Taking a Fresh Look at Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)

Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL) is an interesting player in the Consumer Goods space, with a focus on Textile – Apparel Footwear & Accessories. The stock has been active on the tape, currently trading at $24.88, up from yesterday’s close by -0.60%. Given the stock’s recent action, it seemed like a good time to take a closer look at the company’s recent data.

Fundamental Analysis

It’s important to get a feel for how any stock is actually valued on the market based on its core numbers. Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) currently trades with a market capitalization of $1.20B. That value represents a market adjusting for revenues that have been falling by -4.30% on a quarterly year/year basis as of the company’s last quarterly report.

The balance sheet health of any company plays a key role in its ability to meet its obligations and maintain the faith of its investment base. For FOSL, the company currently has $235.95M of cash on the books, which is offset by $725.46M current liabilities. You can get a sense of how sustainable that is by a levered free cash flow of $247.55M over the past twelve months. Generally speaking, earnings are expected to fall in coming quarters. Analysts are forecasting earnings of 1.21 on a per share basis this quarter. Perhaps, that suggests something about why 89.40% of the outstanding share supply is held by institutional investors.

Technical Analysis

We’ve taken a serious look at this stock from a fundamental perspective, but the tale of the tape may offer more hints about what lies under the surface. Looking at the stock’s movement on the chart, Fossil Group, Inc. recorded a 52-week high of 51.93. It is now trading 26.9 off that level. The stock is trading 29.94 its 50-day moving average by 4.91. The stock carved out a 52-week low down at 23.10.

In recent action, Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) has made a move of -23.68% over the past month, which has come on weak relative transaction volume. Over the trailing year, the stock is underperforming the S&P 500 by 35.73, and it’s gotten there by action that has been less volatile on a day-to-day basis than most other stocks on the exchange. In terms of the mechanics underlying that movement, traders will want to note that the stock is trading on a float of 40.97M with 31.82% sitting short, betting on future declines. That suggests something of the likelihood of a short squeeze in shares of FOSL.

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